Bloomberg NEF: Japan protecting nuclear and coal in energy planning
Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan (source: flickr/ Guwashi999, creative commons)
Alexander Richter
4 Jun 2015
BNEF and the Japanese Government clash on the outlook for renewables, coal and nuclear for the country.
Following the Fukushima accident, Japan shut down their remaining nuclear power plants. This lead to a big boost for renewables in the country, mainly solar but also for geothermal, seeing new projects emerge after decades of inactivity.
The question now is what will it happen in the future. Some say that nuclear is poised to make a massive comeback. “Japan’s expectation that nuclear generation will account for as much as 22 percent of its electricity in 2030 is overly optimistic” said Bloomberg New Energy Finance in a recent article.
The rationale behind this assertion: the high costs of reactivating the reactors, the impact of extending the lifetime of said nuclear plants and the significant regulatory and political hurdles that are needed to achieve the 22% figure. Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that “atomic power will probably supply no more than 10 percent of electricity in 2030”
The official outlook from the Japanese government seems to be “too bearish on the roles for gas and clean energy”, BNEF said.
It is clear that BNEF and Japan have some clear discrepancies. The former gives a bigger role to renewables and also states that “Overall, the government’s outlook appears to be an attempt at reconciling competing goals of achieving a lower-emission generation mix while at the same time protecting the politically favoured technologies of coal and nuclear”.
For the full analysis, see White Paper here: http://about.bnef.com/white-papers/japans-likely-2030-energy-mix-gas-solar/
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
