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New study: Geothermal cheaper than fossil fuels within 3 years

Alexander Richter 25 Jul 2009

Geothermal could be as cheap as coal in 3 years for US$ 3 billion of R&D investment.

A recent study by New York University’s Stern School of Business has been covered by many publications and blogs, including SolveClimate.com in the article on “Geothermal could be as cheap as coal in 3 years for US$ 3 billion”. The article describes the report has having “tested five major clean technologies for their cost effectiveness — hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar, wind and biomass energy. Each was analyzed through the lens of what are dubbed technology improvement “S-curves,” models used to plot the performance of a given technology against the amount of effort and money poured into it.”

In the NYU study, geothermal posted a “very sharply increasing performance curve.” Cost-wise, the technology displayed the most growth, achieving more kWh per dollar than the other three technologies, and showed “no indication of slowing performance improvement.”

The allure of geothermal power is in its enormous and tappable resource potential.

In the U.S. — the world’s biggest energy consumer — there is enough energy from hot rocks to supply the primary electricity needs of the entire nation for at least 30,000 years, according to estimates by the U.S. Department of Energy. It’s already relatively inexpensive and mostly clean.

But the technology’s real promise lies in enhanched geothermal systems (EGS), the cutting-edge systems that go deeper than traditional geothermal to tap the Earth’s heat.

Today’s reality is that, in America, geothermal makes up just under 0.3 percent of total electricity production capacity, while wind accounts for around 1 percent.

That could change — if energy policy is driven by cost-efficiency considerations, not the institutional inertia and politics of the moment that are keeping fossil fuels in the game.

For the full article on SolveClimate.com and the actual NYU report see link below.

Sources: SolveClimate.com and actual Stern School of Business NYU article: Schilling, M.A., Esmundo, M., “Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government” (pdf, Energy Policy 37 (2009) 1767-1781))