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Our Top 10 trends for the geothermal industry in 2014

Our Top 10 trends for the geothermal industry in 2014 Pipes at Ngatamariki geothermal plant, New Zealand (source: Mighty River Power)
Alexander Richter 27 Dec 2013

ThinkGeoEnergy publishes its Top 10 Trends for the Global Geothermal Energy Industry in 2014, being carefully optimistic for the industry to grow and an increased interest for geothermal particularly on direct use.

The year 2013 has been quite an eventful year for the global geothermal sector and will soon follow up with some top news as featured on ThinkGeoEnergy this year.

There have a number of trends started to emerge. In 2014 ThinkGeoEnergy foresees the following 10 trends for the global geothermal industry. BUT we are keen to hear your views and thoughts what you foresee as trends for 2014.

1. Regional growth markets

If finally going through parliament, new geothermal legislation will see a kick start in development in Indonesia.

The increased activities for geothermal in Kenya will now jump over to other countries in Eastern Africa, including Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania … and maybe Djibouti will also be a new thing.

The U.S. will only see marginal growth with smaller projects progressing

Latin America will see increased activities particulary in Central America. Chile remains a big unknown and no big steps can be expected in 2014.

The Caribbean, with so much potential, will hopefully see the projects in Dominica and Montserrat progress. For the other projects I am not that hopeful.

2. Exploration and Exploration services

Exploration services are a crucial element in the value chain of geothermal development. With slowed down activities in their home markets the “bigger” service firms are more and more working from the distance or travelling extensively, which is neither sustainable nor cost effective. With a larger number of smaller companies entering the market, we will see an increased focus on educating the new generation of geothermal exploration specialists and a more local approach with local subsidiaries and joint ventures, e.g. in Africa and elsewhere.

3. Marketing

This will be another challenging year with getting more public attention, but we will see some new concerted efforts to change this. So I am rather optimistic that we will make some huge leap forward.

4. Public engagement

The industry will now wake up and accept that there needs to be more public engagement for geothermal development and activities in general. Not only PR work, not only pure marketing, but real engagement of stakeholders in communities and regions to educate what geothermal has to offer, but also to accept as criticism.

5. Events

2013 can probably be best described having set a dangerous trend, the ever decreasing size of geothermal events … BUT 2014 will be the year of the event planners that understand how to push events, they will have to stick to what they are good at and continue their events or event series in order to position themselves to more growth in the year after that.
The trend will go to fewer events focused on specific regions.

6. Industry Associations

Industry associations will continue to play an important role in promoting the industry, but with decreased funding it will be difficult to have real and growing impact for 2014.

7. Industry Business Model

We will see the an increase in activities by larger groups and companies with a strong balance sheet pushing forward with development, see Turkey as an example. This might be energy players, but also pure geothermal players.

8. Turbine suppliers

The trend for 2014 will be going towards an increasing price competition for both Flash and Binary systems. Flash because of the lack of development and larger players desperate to make a sale, but also on the binary side due to the fact of increasing competition. BUT – and here I might be biased – speed of delivery and bringing power online quickly will be a strong push for smaller scale well-head approach.

9. Banks & Financing

We will not see big financing deals in 2014, but first signs of an awakening with activities picking up in Asia. The impact of risk mitigation tools, e.g. by the World Bank etc. will be visible, but not translate into increased investments very soon. But with increased interest we will see some initial move on early stage projects.

10. District heating/ direct use

We will see a much larger interest in direct use projects world-wide, while not receiving much public attention. Things will clearly pick up in this sector.

ThinkGeoEnergy will naturally continue to follow and innovate throughout the coming 12 months and do its best to help promote a growing industry. We will though also ask critical questions and reach out to your opinions and comments.