Scaling up clean energy, the Gigaton Throwdown
Alexander Richter
3 Jul 2009
The Gigaton Throwdown Initiative launched to educate and inspire investors, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and policy makers to “think big” and understand what it would take to scale up clean energy massively over the next 10 years, talks about investment needs of US$ 1.9 billion for geothermal and sees it as an important part of the overall clean energy efforts.
People with a passion for green energy or cleantech are always fascinating to meet, while they often preach to the wrong choir. But in this case it gets a lot of attention, has high profile supporters and addresses the investment crowd.
So this is extremely useful in the current environment and caught my attention. Sunil Paul, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, just released a report called the “Gigaton Throwdown“. In his report he also talks about investment needs for geothermal, but not only because of that did I think it might be worth to post.
The Gigaton Throwdown project is evaluating a portfolio of cleantech pathways that could lead to 1 gigaton per year of CO2-equivalent reduction by 2020, and the implications for capital, policy, and industry. It was launched by Sunil Paulin 2007, at the Clinton Global Initiative.
The article describes Sunil as someone thinking big and being well-connected in Washington. His project, in his words “redefines what’s possible for clean energy by 2020.” It’s roadmap that demonstrates how we can scale up clean energy to have a major impact in the next decade.”
Having represented a group called “Cleantech and Green Business for Obama” he is very well connected to the current administration in Washington.
The article continues: “Working with scientists, entrepreneurs and investors, Paul put together a team to see what it would take to reach “gigaton scale” for nine technologies — biofuels, building efficiency, concentrated solar power (i.e. solar thermal), construction materials, geothermal, nuclear, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics and wind. As the report explains:
“To attain gigaton scale, a single technology must reduce annual emissions of carbon dioxide and equivalent greenhouse gases (CO2e) by at least 1 billion metric tons — a gigaton — by 2020. For an electricity generation technology, this is equivalent to an installed capacity of 205 gigawatts (GW) of carbon-free energy (at 100 percent capacity) in 2020.”
The report found that eight of the nine technologies — the exception was plug-in hybrids — could feasibly reach gigaton scale in a bit more than a decade. Paul’s report is significant, in part, because it reflects the thinking of a many in a hurry — other studies, particularly the very good McKinsey study on how to avoid climate disaster, look out 20 or 40 years.”
“For investors, those time frames just don’t make any sense,” Paul told me. “By 2030 or 2050, we’ll either be retired or dead. So we needed something immediate, so we can be held accountable, so we can see the results in a a time frame that matters for investors and entrepreneurs and business leaders — 10 years.”
“What we learned is that there are no fundamental barriers to scaling up these technologies to the point where they have massive impact,” he said.
On geothermal the report talks about that “Geothermal can achieve gigaton scale but technological advances will be needed. The investment required will be US$919 million (with additional US$ 1 billion for EGS to become market ready).” [The Geothermal section of the report, in full downloadable in pdf format from the site]
Key Highlights:
- Geothermal can achieve gigaton scale by 2020 – contingent on development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) – for an investment of $919 billion.
- EGS development will require an estimated $1 billion in R&D to be market ready.
- Major areas for technology support include transmission, drilling, reservoir stimulation, downhole pumps, energy conversion, and exploration.
- Geothermal will ramp slowly; each project requires roughly 5-7 years.
- Existing hydrothermal (naturally occurring geothermal) resources are projected to be able to contribute 90 GW of installed capacity if fully developed, or 40% of the gigaton target of 238 GW.
So it looks like a realistic and good observation of geothermal energy and a good advertisement for it as well. Particularly interesting is the downhole pump part, which is also a big effort by the Foundation for Geothermal Innovation in California. This organization is designing a global geothermal challenge (as a high valued incentive price for development), but I will write an own article on this very soon.
Source: Reuters
